| Course | MT296 Supply Chain Management Applications |
|---|---|
| Unit | Unit 6 |
| Paper type | Seminar reflection |
| Length | About 800 words, 5 pages double-spaced |
| Format | APA 7 student paper |
| School | Purdue University Global |
| Program | BS in Business Administration |
| Updated | October 2026 |
Free sample paper for MT296 Unit 6
Why Making Exactly the Forecast Was the Wrong Answer: A Unit 6 Seminar Reflection on a Holiday Pierogi Order
[Student Name]
Purdue University Global
MT296: Supply Chain Management Applications
Unit 6 Seminar Reflection
[Instructor Name]
[Date]
The pierogi maker, the grocery chain, prices, costs and the classmates are composite and illustrative; the sources cited are real.
Where I Started
Our instructor gave us a problem from my own workplace, a frozen pierogi maker in Buffalo, which I had brought to the seminar. A regional grocery chain plans a Christmas Eve feature on mushroom-and-sauerkraut pierogi, a traditional dish for the holiday in many Polish-American families. The chain will buy what it needs in one order in early December, and the plant must decide how many cases to make in a single run. The sales forecast is 4,200 cases.
My answer, before the session, was to make 4,200. The forecast is our best estimate, I reasoned, and anything above it risks waste. I had seen unsold seasonal product at my plant end up in a dumpster, and I wanted to avoid that.
The Calculation the Class Worked
The instructor asked what happens to cases we make but do not sell, and what a lost sale costs. I gave the figures from our records, and the class worked them into a box on the board.
Selling price to the chain: $27.60 a case
Variable cost to make a case: $16.90
Profit lost on each sale we cannot fill: $27.60 minus $16.90, or $10.70
An outlet buyer takes leftover frozen cases after the holiday at $15.20, less $0.60 of storage until pickup, a net $14.60
Loss on each case made but not sold: $16.90 minus $14.60, or $2.30
The critical ratio is the cost of a lost sale divided by the sum of that cost and the cost of a leftover: 10.70 ÷ (10.70 + 2.30) = 0.823. Jacobs and Chase (2020) describe this single-period, or newsvendor, model as the right tool when a product must be ordered once for a season and leftovers lose value. The ratio says to make enough that demand falls below the quantity about 82 percent of the time.
The forecast's standard deviation, from past seasonal promotions, is about 900 cases. The z-value for 0.823 is about 0.927. Silver et al. (2017) show how the normal distribution turns a critical ratio into a quantity once the forecast's mean and spread are known. The quantity is 4,200 + 0.927 × 900, about 5,034 cases.
Why My First Answer Was Wrong
My first answer treated leftovers as a total loss, which they are not. Frozen pierogi keep for months, and the outlet buyer pays most of their cost back. A classmate, Gabriela, who manages purchasing for a bakery, put it plainly: with bread, a leftover loaf is worth almost nothing the next day, so a bakery should make close to the forecast or less; with frozen food, a leftover case is only a small loss, so the plant should lean toward making more.
Leftover frozen pierogi cost us two dollars a case; a missed sale cost us almost eleven.
The expected profit confirmed it. Making 4,200 cases gives an expected profit of about $40,272, because in roughly half the outcomes demand exceeds 4,200 and those sales are lost. Making 5,034 cases gives about $41,903, about $1,630 more, even after counting the leftovers.
What the Model Leaves Out
The class also noted what the calculation does not include. If the chain runs out on Christmas Eve, shoppers may be annoyed enough to remember it, a cost beyond the lost $10.70 that would push the quantity higher still. On the other side, the outlet buyer's price is not guaranteed; if it fell to $12, the leftover cost would rise to $5.50, the critical ratio would drop to about 0.66 and the quantity would fall to about 4,570. The answer depends on those two numbers, so they should be confirmed before the run is scheduled.
What I Took From the Seminar
The lesson I took is that the forecast is only the middle of a range, and the right quantity depends on the costs on either side of it. Making exactly the forecast is only correct when a leftover and a lost sale cost the same, which is almost never true. Cachon and Terwiesch (2020) make the same point: the newsvendor quantity moves above or below the mean depending on which mistake is cheaper.
I also learned to check my assumptions about waste. The dumpster I remembered was for fresh product, not frozen. For our holiday promotions, the cheaper mistake is making too many, and we should plan accordingly. I have asked our planner to use the critical ratio for next year's seasonal flavors.
References
Cachon, G., & Terwiesch, C. (2020). Matching supply with demand: An introduction to operations management (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Jacobs, F. R., & Chase, R. B. (2020). Operations and supply chain management (16th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Silver, E. A., Pyke, D. F., & Thomas, D. J. (2017). Inventory and production management in supply chains (4th ed.). CRC Press.
MT296 Unit 6 instructions, in plain terms
The sixth unit's seminar works a single-period inventory problem together, and the reflection asks what quantity you first proposed, how the session changed it and what you learned. State your starting answer and the reasoning behind it honestly. Show the calculation the class worked, with the costs of a lost sale and a leftover and the resulting critical ratio and quantity; a small calculation box is welcome. Record the specific point a classmate made that changed your view, by first name. Try a different value for the least certain cost to see how far the quantity moves, then end with the change you will make at work. Two first-person pages are enough; the textbook plus one further source, in APA 7, will do.
How the MT 296 Unit 6 example is put together
The reflection explains the holiday feature and the single-run decision, then states the writer's plan to make the forecast. A calculation box gives the price, cost, salvage value and storage, and derives the lost-sale and leftover costs, with Jacobs and Chase on the newsvendor model and Silver and colleagues on converting the ratio. A section explains why the first answer was wrong, with Gabriela's bread and frozen food comparison and the highlighted line on two dollars against eleven. Expected profit at both quantities is compared under a margin note. The model's blind spots, shopper goodwill and an uncertain salvage price, are then tested under a second note. The close cites Cachon and Terwiesch and commits to using the ratio next year.
Where the points sit in the MT296 Unit 6 rubric
MT 296 seminar reflections are marked on an honest starting answer, a correct calculation, a clear turning point and a lesson the writer will apply. Instructors reward reflections that show the newsvendor arithmetic accurately, including how costs were derived. Explaining why the first answer was wrong in terms of the model's logic, not just that the class disagreed, shows understanding. A classmate's point recorded specifically makes the change credible. Comparing expected profit at both quantities and testing a key input show judgment. A concrete change in practice closes the loop. First person is expected, and the sources need correct APA references throughout. A small calculation box keeps the arithmetic easy to follow and is often praised.
MT296 Unit 6 help from the desk
A common weakness is a reflection that presents the final quantity without the writer's original reasoning. Another is treating leftovers as worthless when they have a salvage value, or ignoring storage costs. Some reflections compute the critical ratio but use the wrong z-value or add safety stock on top of the newsvendor quantity. Others never test the inputs. Check every subtraction in the cost box, and confirm the z-value against a table. A quantity below the forecast is right only when leftovers cost more than lost sales. Send the problem your seminar worked and your first answer, and a writer can lay out the calculation and draft the reflection around what changed your mind.
Get an MT296 Unit 6 example written to your instructions
Say what problem the Unit 6 seminar tackled, and whether this reflection replaces live attendance. Include the prompt and rubric too, plus your own first instinct about the answer, however rough. A first custom sample reflection, written in first person, arrives within 24-48h and costs nothing, calculation box included. The paper above is an original model document written by our desk, not a submitted student paper and not an official Purdue University Global document.
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MT296 Unit 6 questions, answered
What is the newsvendor model?
It sets the quantity for a single selling period when leftover stock loses value and shortages lose sales. Its critical ratio compares the margin lost on a missing unit with the loss on an unsold one, shortage cost over shortage plus excess cost, and gives the chance of covering demand the quantity should target. Holiday promotions, fashion buys and event catering are classic applications.
Can a reflection include calculations?
Yes, and in an applied course it often should. The seminar worked a problem, so showing the key figures lets a reader see why your view changed. Keep the arithmetic compact, a box or short table, and let the prose carry the reflection. A page of formulas with one line of reflection misreads what the assignment wants.
What if I agreed with the class from the start?
Reflect on what the session confirmed and what it added. Perhaps you expected to produce more but had not considered a retailer penalty, or you knew the method but not its limits. A reflection can show deepening rather than reversal, as long as it traces a specific change in understanding that a reader can follow.
Where can I find a free MT296 Unit 6 sample paper?
The full MT296 Unit 6 seminar reflection is printed here, following a student who would have made exactly the holiday forecast until the newsvendor model raised the quantity to about 5,034 cases.
Why does the MT296 Unit 6 sample make more than the forecast?
A lost sale costs $10.70 while a leftover frozen case costs only $2.30 after salvage, so the critical ratio of 0.823 calls for making enough to cover demand about 82 percent of the time.