| Course | MT482 Financial Statement Analysis |
|---|---|
| Unit | Unit 9 |
| Paper type | Forecast model |
| Length | About 840 words, 6 pages double-spaced |
| Format | APA 7 student paper |
| School | Purdue University Global |
| Program | BS in Business Administration |
| Updated | October 2026 |
Free sample paper for MT482 Unit 9
Faces, Rates and Occupancy, Not One Growth Rate: An MT482 Unit 9 Forecast Model for a Billboard Company
[Student Name]
Purdue University Global
MT482: Financial Statement Analysis
Unit 9 Forecast Model
[Instructor Name]
[Date]
Wabash Outdoor and every figure are composite; the sources cited are real.
Why Drivers
A forecast that grows last year's revenue by a single percentage hides every assumption that matters. Wabash Outdoor's revenue depends on how many faces of each type it has, what each rents for and how often each is sold. Building the forecast from those drivers lets a reader challenge any one of them. Penman (2013) argues that forecasting should start from the operating activities that generate revenue, and a billboard company's drivers are unusually easy to see. The model has three parts: a driver sheet, a projected income statement and a cash and debt schedule.
The Driver Sheet
At the end of 2025, Wabash operated 5,200 bulletins, 5,550 posters and 640 digital faces, plus other revenue from production and installation fees. The 2025 revenue of $380 million came about $183.6 million from bulletins, $59.9 million from posters, $98.9 million from digital faces and $37.6 million from other sources.
For 2026, bulletin rates rise 2.5 percent, poster rates 2.0 percent and digital slot rates 1.5 percent, in line with recent increases. Occupancy is held at 2025 levels, 73 percent for bulletins and 79 percent for digital slots. The notes explain why: occupancy has varied by less than two points over five years, and nothing in the advertising outlook suggests a change. Other revenue grows about 4.3 percent with production work for new digital advertisers.
The 180 bulletins chosen for conversion sell as bulletins for the first half of the year, about $3.26 million, then as digital faces at 70 percent of a mature face's productivity, about $9.88 million for the second half. At a full year, those faces would earn about $19.75 million.
Half a year of the converted faces adds almost $10 million of revenue, and a full year would double it.
The Projected Income Statement
Revenue reaches $395.49 million, up 4.1 percent: the remaining bulletins earn about $181.7 million, posters $61.1 million, existing digital faces $100.3 million, converted faces $3.26 million as bulletins and $9.88 million as digital and other revenue $39.2 million.
Costs follow their own drivers. Ground rent escalates 2.5 percent under lease terms, power 3 percent, and variable costs stay at about 10.4 percent of revenue; other costs rise with inflation. EBITDA reaches $170.8 million, a margin of 43.19 percent, up from 43.0 as digital revenue grows. Depreciation rises to about $60.1 million with the new screens, interest is about $44.87 million with the new loan drawn for half the year and taxes take 24 percent. Net income is about $50.03 million, slightly below 2025's because 2025 included a one-time gain of $4.6 million.
The Cash and Debt Schedule
Operating cash flow is about $115.33 million. Capital spending is about $66.1 million: $14.9 million for maintenance, $45.0 million for the conversions and $6.2 million for other growth projects. Free cash flow is about $49.23 million, and dividends of $26.4 million leave $22.83 million to reduce net debt. The new $45 million loan funds the conversions, scheduled repayments take about $10.52 million, and part of the cash surplus repays the revolver. Net debt falls from $661.77 million to about $638.94 million, and net debt to EBITDA from 4.05 to about 3.74 times EBITDA.
Checking the Forecast
Each driver can be checked against history. Rate increases of 1.5 to 2.5 percent sit within the last five years' range. The 70 percent productivity assumption for new digital faces comes from the company's earlier conversions in similar markets, which reached between 64 and 78 percent in their first year. Koller et al. (2020) recommend testing each forecast assumption against the company's history and its strategy, and these assumptions pass both tests.
What 2027 Would Look Like
A full year of the converted faces would add about $9.9 million of digital revenue in 2027 beyond the 2026 figure, less the bulletin revenue those faces earned in the first half of 2026. With rent and power on the new screens, EBITDA would rise by roughly $4.3 million from the conversions alone, before any rate increases. Capital spending should fall back toward maintenance levels unless the company approves another conversion program, so free cash flow would rise sharply in 2027.
Sensitivities
The forecast is most sensitive to digital productivity and occupancy. If converted faces reach only 60 percent of a mature face, revenue falls about $1.4 million in 2026 and $2.8 million at run rate. A two-point fall in bulletin occupancy would cut revenue by about $5 million and EBITDA by nearly as much, since few costs vary.
Limits
The model forecasts one year and assumes no acquisitions or disposals. Occupancy is the assumption most exposed to a downturn, which Unit 4's stress case covered. Fridson and Alvarez (2022) advise pairing any forecast with the downside case, so the two units should be read together.
References
Fridson, M. S., & Alvarez, F. (2022). Financial statement analysis: A practitioner's guide (5th ed.). Wiley.
Koller, T., Goedhart, M., & Wessels, D. (2020). Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies (7th ed.). Wiley.
Penman, S. H. (2013). Financial statement analysis and security valuation (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Reading the MT 482 Unit 9 instructions
The Unit 9 task in MT482 asks you to build a forecast from the drivers of a company's business rather than a single growth rate. Set out a driver sheet: units of each product, prices and utilization, with notes justifying every assumption from history. Project the income statement line by line, letting costs follow their own drivers. Add a cash and debt schedule showing operating cash, capital spending, dividends and the resulting debt. Check each assumption against the company's past and strategy. Show the sensitivities that matter most and what the following year would look like if the forecast holds. Close with the assumptions most exposed to a downturn. About five pages with notes is common, covering a driver sheet, a projected income statement and a cash and debt schedule that ties to them.
How the MT 482 Unit 9 example is put together
Wabash's model explains why drivers beat a single growth rate, citing Penman on forecasting from operations. The driver sheet lists faces by type, 2025 revenue by product and the 2026 rate and occupancy assumptions, with reasons. The converted faces are split into a bulletin half year and a digital half year, under a highlighted line on the half-year effect. The projected income statement builds revenue by product and costs by driver to reach EBITDA, depreciation, interest and net income. The cash and debt schedule takes operating cash through capital spending, dividends and the new loan to year-end net debt. A checking section compares each assumption with history, citing Koller and colleagues. A section previews 2027, sensitivities test digital productivity and occupancy and the limits, with Fridson and Alvarez, pair the forecast with Unit 4's stress case.
MT482 Unit 9 rubric: what earns full points
Forecast models are graded on transparent drivers and internal consistency. Instructors credit driver sheets where every assumption is stated and justified from history, because a reader can then challenge a specific input. Revenue built by product and costs that follow their own drivers show understanding of the business. A cash and debt schedule that ties to the income statement demonstrates integration. Checking assumptions against the past, and showing sensitivities to the most uncertain ones, shows judgment. Handling timing within the year, such as a mid-year conversion, is often rewarded as careful modeling. Notes that explain choices make the model usable by others. Clear schedules let the grader trace each figure to its driver.
MT482 Unit 9 help: mistakes that cost points
The commonest Unit 9 weakness is applying one growth rate to revenue and every cost line. Another is holding costs fixed while revenue grows, which inflates margins. Students often omit the cash and debt schedule, so the forecast never reaches the balance sheet. Timing within the year is commonly ignored, treating a mid-year project as if it ran all year. Assumptions are frequently stated without any justification. Before submitting, pick your three most important assumptions and write the historical evidence for each. Then change each by a plausible amount and report how much net income moves. If one assumption dominates, say so in your conclusion, because that is where a reader should focus.
Get an MT482 Unit 9 example written to your instructions
Attach the historical statements and drivers from your earlier units, or just the company's name, together with the Unit 9 forecast instructions and rubric. The custom model links each assumption to the analysis that supports it, flows the income statement into cash and debt, and tests the least certain driver. First sample free of charge, about 24-48h. The paper above is an original model document written by our desk, not a submitted student paper and not an official Purdue University Global document.
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MT482 Unit 9 questions, answered
How far ahead should the forecast go?
As far as the prompt specifies; many undergraduate sections ask for one year, some for three. A one-year model can afford detail by face type or product line, while longer horizons usually shift to broader drivers. The sample projects 2026 only and notes the run-rate effect of the conversions, 19.75 million of revenue, for the following year.
Why hold occupancy flat?
Because the earlier analysis found no evidence for a change: occupancy has been steady, and the company's markets showed no new competition. Holding a driver flat is a choice that still needs a reason, stated in the notes. The sample then tests the digital occupancy that is least certain, at 75 percent instead of 79, to show how much rides on it.
Where can I find a free MT482 Unit 9 sample paper?
The whole MT482 Unit 9 model is printed here, forecasting a composite billboard company's 2026 revenue, earnings and debt from faces, rates and occupancy.
Why does 2026 net income fall slightly in the MT482 Unit 9 sample?
2025 included a one-time $4.6 million gain on structures sold; without it, 2026 earnings would be higher than 2025's.
Does a forecast model need a full balance sheet?
Many sections accept a cash and debt schedule instead, provided it shows how operating cash, capital spending and dividends change net debt by year end.