| Course | GF585 Strategic Financial Planning and Forecasting Analytics |
|---|---|
| Unit | Unit 5 |
| Paper type | Scenario set |
| Length | About 850 words, 6 pages double-spaced |
| Format | APA 7 student paper |
| School | Purdue University Global |
| Program | MS in Finance |
| Updated | October 2026 |
Free sample paper for GF585 Unit 5
Bad Years Come in Bundles: A Unit 5 Scenario Set for a Commercial Linen Service
[Student Name]
Purdue University Global
GF585: Strategic Financial Planning and Forecasting Analytics
Unit 5 Scenario Set
[Instructor Name]
[Date]
The linen service, its scenarios, costs and cash figures are composite and illustrative; the articles cited are real.
Three Years, Told First in Words
Base. The year runs as the Unit 4 forecast describes. Occupancy rises modestly, hotels renew at 63.5 cents in April, clinics sign two a month and gas stays at 90 cents a therm. Revenue reaches $17.16 million and EBITDA $2.74 million, with customers paying in 41 days on average.
Downside. A regional tourism slump begins in the spring. Hotels lose room nights, so each sends about 6 percent fewer pounds than last year. Under pressure on their own margins, the hotels refuse the April increase, and two accounts a quarter move to a cheaper competitor or close their laundry contract. Clinics hesitate, and signings fall to one a month. A cold winter lifts gas to $1.25 a therm. Hotels short of cash stretch their payments, and collection time slips to 52 days. Route additions stop at 23.
Upside. A strong convention calendar lifts occupancy so hotel pounds run 3 percent above last year. A hospital system's clinic network converts faster than the pipeline expected, adding three accounts a month. Gas eases to 80 cents. The company adds a third new route to serve the clinics, for 25 in all.
Writing the stories first is the test of coherence. A slump that cuts occupancy but leaves hotel payments and price untouched describes a year that does not happen (Schoemaker, 1995).
The Scenario Table
Each driver is listed with its value in the three cases. Values that differ from the base are marked with an asterisk.
1. Hotel pounds against last year: base +1.5 percent, downside 6 percent below*, upside +3 percent*.
2. April hotel price: base 63.5 cents, downside 62 cents*, upside 63.5 cents.
3. Hotel accounts lost per quarter: base one, downside two*, upside one.
4. Clinic signings per month: base two, downside one*, upside three*.
5. Gas per therm: base 90 cents, downside $1.25*, upside 80 cents*.
6. Routes: base 24, downside 23*, upside 25*.
7. Days to collect: base 41, downside 52*, upside 41.
Results Three Ways
Revenue is $17.16 million in the base, $15.62 million in the downside and $17.64 million in the upside. EBITDA is $2.74 million, $1.94 million and $2.91 million.
Cash tells a harsher story than profit in the downside. At 52 days, receivables stand at about $2.22 million on lower revenue, against $1.93 million in the base, so about $297,000 more cash is tied up with customers even as sales fall. After the change in receivables from last year, cash generated before capital spending is about $2.64 million in the base, $1.53 million in the downside and $2.75 million in the upside. The downside's EBITDA falls 29 percent below the base, but its cash falls 42 percent.
Moving occupancy alone to the downside level leaves EBITDA at about $2.39 million, some $451,000 better than the combined case, which is the amount a single-input test would have hidden.
Why the Bundle Matters
The downside's damage comes as much from what travels with the slump as from the slump itself. The deferred price rise costs about $200,000 of revenue that carries almost no cost. Lost accounts compound through the year. Slower collections do not touch EBITDA at all but take cash that the plant needs for its washer replacement. A planning team that tested each input separately would rank occupancy as a moderate risk and miss the combination that actually threatens the year (Wack, 1985).
The Upside Has Its Own Problem
The upside is not simply good news. Third-quarter volume reaches 534,312 pounds a week against a one-shift limit of 520,000. The excess, about 14,300 pounds a week for thirteen weeks, would need roughly 1,770 extra plant hours. Covering that with overtime is possible for one summer, but clinic volume does not fall back after the summer, so the overrun becomes permanent within a year.
Actions Attached to Each Case
1. Downside. Defer the planned $640,000 tunnel washer by one year, hold routes at 23, and move hotel invoices to weekly billing to recover collection days.
2. Base. Proceed with the washer in the fourth quarter and add routes as clinics sign.
3. Upside. Staff a partial second shift before July, about three evening hours a day, rather than relying on overtime through the peak.
Signposts
Each case announces itself early, and management can watch for it. Monthly room-night reports from the tourism bureau show occupancy weeks before hotel pounds fall. Hotel pounds per account on route sheets confirm it. Clinic signings against the pipeline show whether healthcare is running at one, two or three a month. Days sales outstanding, reported monthly, reveal slower payment. Unusual events still fall outside any set of three cases, so the signposts are checked monthly rather than once a year (Goodwin & Wright, 2010).
References
Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2010). The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(3), 355-368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.10.008
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 72-89.
GF585 Unit 5 instructions, in plain terms
Unit 5 of GF585 asks for a small set of scenarios, usually a base, a downside and an upside, built so their assumptions belong together. Write each case first as a short account of the year, then translate it into driver values. Present a table with one row per driver and one column per case, marking values that differ from the base. Report results more than one way, at least as profit and as cash, since a bad year can hurt collections more than earnings. Show what bundling adds by comparing the combined downside with a single-input version. Look for problems hidden inside the upside, such as capacity. Attach a management action to each case, and finish with early signals that would show which case is arriving. Cite scenario planning sources in APA 7.
How the GF 585 Unit 5 example is put together
Three short narratives open the set, one per case, ending with Schoemaker's point that a slump without matching price and payment effects is incoherent. A seven-row scenario table follows, with asterisks on changed values. Results appear three ways, and a cash paragraph shows downside cash falling 42 percent against a 29 percent fall in EBITDA. The highlighted sentence prices the single-input mistake at about $451,000. A bundle section cites Wack on how combined effects escape notice. An upside section sizes the third-quarter overrun at roughly 14,300 pounds a week and 1,770 plant hours. Three actions follow, from deferring a $640,000 tunnel washer to staffing a partial second shift before July, and signposts close the set, citing Goodwin and Wright on events outside any case.
GF585 Unit 5 rubric: what earns full points
Credit on GF585 scenario sets depends heavily on coherence, so cases written as believable years, with drivers that plausibly travel together, earn more than three columns of independent tweaks. The table should make every change visible at a glance. Reporting cash as well as EBITDA catches a large share of available points, because receivables often move in the opposite direction from profit. Instructors in the MS in Finance program reward a comparison that measures what bundling adds, and an upside examined for its own risks rather than celebrated. Actions tied to each case, and signposts that a manager could check monthly, show the set was built to be used. Schoemaker, Wack and Goodwin and Wright, cited in APA 7, round out the research expected here.
GF585 Unit 5 help from the desk
GF585 scenario sets often move one input per case, a lower price in the downside and a higher one in the upside, which is sensitivity analysis under another name. Downside assumptions are pushed to catastrophe instead of a plausible bad year. Results stop at EBITDA, so the cash strain of slower collections never appears. The upside is treated as pure good news even when the plant cannot handle the volume. Cases end without any action, leaving management a table but no plan. Probabilities are invented to look precise. Whatever drivers your case supplies, keep this sequence: a short story for each year, a driver table with changes marked, results as profit and cash, a bundled versus single-input comparison, the upside's hidden limit, an action for each case and monthly signposts.
Get a GF585 Unit 5 example written to your instructions
Bring the base forecast your GF585 Unit 5 prompt builds on, any scenario instructions and the rubric. The custom set bundles assumptions that shift in tandem, reports profit and cash separately, checks capacity in the upside and ties each case to a management action and early signposts. It arrives in 24-48h, and a first sample carries no fee. The paper above is an original model document written by our desk, not a submitted student paper and not an official Purdue University Global document.
More GF585 papers and MS in Finance samples
- GF585 Unit 1: Water Use Forecast Miss Post
- GF585 Unit 2: Healthcare Share Strategy Memo
- GF585 Unit 3: Linen Service Driver Model Build
- GF585 Unit 4: Quarterly Linen Revenue Forecast
- GF585 Unit 6: Seminar Reflection
- GF585 Unit 7: Sensitivity Table
- GF585 Unit 8: Trend Forecasting Exercise
- GF585 Unit 9: Variance Analysis
- GF585 Unit 10: Planning Report
- GF584 Unit 5: Put or Participating Forward Comparison
- GF583 Unit 5: Thirteen-Week Cash Forecast
- GF582 Unit 5: Confidence Interval Workup in Two Parts
- GF581 Unit 5: ASC 830 Translation Exposure Review
GF585 Unit 5 questions, answered
Must the downside be a worst case?
No, and most instructors prefer a plausible bad year to a catastrophe. The sample's downside draws each assumption from something that has happened in the region before, such as occupancy falling 6 percent. A catastrophe case can be added for stress purposes, but if it drives every decision, the plan ends up built around an event nobody expects.
Should each scenario carry a probability?
Only if your case supplies a basis for one. Invented probabilities lend a precision nobody can defend. The sample instead attaches signposts, early readings such as monthly occupancy and collection days, that tell management which case is unfolding. If your section asks for weights, state where they came from and show the result both with and without them.
How is a scenario set different from sensitivity analysis?
Sensitivity moves one input to see how much the result depends on it; scenarios move several inputs that plausibly shift together to describe a whole year. In GF585 the two often sit in adjacent units. The sample stays with bundled cases and leaves the question of which single input matters most to the sensitivity work that usually follows.
Where can I find a free GF585 Unit 5 sample paper?
A complete GF585 Unit 5 scenario set for a linen service is available here, with bundled base, downside and upside cases, results as EBITDA and cash, actions, signposts and APA 7 references.
Why does cash fall further than EBITDA in the downside?
Hotels under pressure pay more slowly, so receivables at 52 days tie up about $297,000 more than the base even though revenue is lower, and that cash loss adds to the profit decline.